TheSportsGeek has more NFL picks for Week 11 of the 2022 schedule. We have our best NFL Week 11 underdogs for Sunday afternoon. It has been a profitable season for our NFL underdog bets and hope to add more winning picks.
Last weekend was not the best for NFL underdogs. We had one of three picks correct. This was the first time in several weeks that it wasn’t a 2-1 or 3-0 Sunday with our underdog bets.
We are confident that getting back on track with winning Week 11 NFL underdogs is likely. Our winning underdog was on the Green Bay Packers last week. They won straight up over the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys were a public play, but the public got burnt at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers came through in a bounce-back spot. The biggest underdog to win in Week 10 was the Washington Commanders.
UNDEFEATED NO MORE!
The @Commanders hand the Eagles their first loss of the season! #HTTC pic.twitter.com/Uu3dGzCZHo
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 15, 2022
Washington handed the Eagles their first loss of the season. They went to Philadelphia and pulled off the upset as 11-point underdogs, 32-21.
LARGEST NFL WEEK 11 UNDERDOGS
The Carolina Panthers are the biggest NFL underdog in Week 11. They are a 13-point underdog at Baltimore vs the Ravens. The Cardinals are the next biggest underdog at +8.5 vs the 49ers in Mexico on MNF.
The status of Kyler Murray will dictate where the point spread goes from here. We are passing on the Monday Night Football game and betting the Sunday card.
There are three NFL Week 11 underdogs that we’ve shortlisted. Check out our best Week 11 NFL underdog bets and NFL Week 11 upsets for Sunday below.
Also, head to our Online NFL Betting page if you are looking for the top sportsbooks to bet on the NFL this week.
Best NFL Week 11 Underdogs
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Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions:
Browns vs Bills Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Over 41.5 (-110)
Under 41.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills are looking to quickly put what happened last week in the past. They have to delete that loss fast or it can manifest itself for weeks. With the ball on their 1-yard line and a lead, Josh Allen fumbled and gave the Minnesota Vikings free points.
Allen was just trying to get a strong push to get off the goal line and run out the clock. The Vikings were out of options. That was their only method to get the ball back and they did.
Only two times in the last 10 years has a player lost a fumble on his own 1-yard line
Josh Allen (2020)
Josh Allen (Sunday) pic.twitter.com/JKeKAs9imi
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 13, 2022
Ultimately, the Vikings won in overtime by a score of 33-30 and the Bills fell to 6-3 on the season. They are in a tie with the New York Jets. The Jets!? Miami has the lead in the AFC East with a record of 7-3.
The Bills have lost back-to-back games, including a 20-17 loss at New York. They were expected to bounce back and were seconds away from a win before disaster struck. Nevertheless, Buffalo is still a contender and will be fine going forward.
DESHAUN WATSON RETURNS TO PRACTICE
Watson was back at practice this week. The former Texan was serving an 11-game suspension for sexual assault allegations. However, the Browns are expected to start Jacoby Brissett vs the Bills.
Brissett has been taking first-team reps, with Watson shaking off the rust this week. The Browns got healthier last week. Pro Bowl cornerback, Denzel Ward, missed three games with a concussion.
Along with Ward returning against the Dolphins, another all-star, offensive guard Wyatt Teller, started, but left in the 1st quarter. It did not matter, as Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins rang up the score for a 39-17 win.
The Browns must respond well or they are going to put themselves out of playoff contention. Win and they’re alive at 4-6, but 3-7 seems like too much to overcome.
Watson has not been at the controls for the Browns, but the offense has been undoubtedly good. Brissett has led the Browns to fifth in total offense per game. They have averaged 375.9 yards a game going into Week 11.
Their rushing game is one of the most vaunted in the league with Nick Chubb. Chubb has gained 904 yards and 13 touchdowns on an impressive 5.7 yards per carry.
The Browns do not like an NFL upset this week, but covering 8.5 points is well within reach. Bet Cleveland to cover for an NFL underdog bet in Week 11.
Browns vs. Bills Underdog Bet
CLEVELAND BROWNS +8.5
Place Bet Now!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions:
Eagles vs Colts Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Over 44 (-110)
Under 44 (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles are in Indianapolis after suffering their first loss of the season. They are on a short week after a 32-21 at home against the Washington Commanders. Despite passing for 211 yards and an interception with no touchdowns, Taylor Heinicke did enough.
Washington had a strong game plan to hold Jalen Hurts in check. He rushed for just 28 yards for the Eagles. Stopping Hurts from running wild is a good first step to beating the Eagles.
The Eagles are still in control of the NFC East at 8-1. In control, but the 7-2 Giants and 6-3 Cowboys remain a threat to the Eagles. Philadelphia can’t afford to go on a skid after losing to the Commanders.
Wednesday injury report #PHIvsIND pic.twitter.com/P1rOOUFmYp
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 16, 2022
They should be fine, though. The two biggest building blocks to success is a good defense and offensive line. You could successfully argue that the Eagles have the best offensive line in football.
The Eagles are third in the NFL with 302.4 yards allowed per game. They have been a strong unit against the pass. Going into Week 11, the Eagles have yielded 177.7 passing yards per game.
Taking to the air with Matt Ryan is not going to be in the game plan for the Colts, though. The Eagles have been susceptible against the run and that is what Jeff Saturday will attempt to exploit.
Expect the Colts to have some success with Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has been a disappointment this year, but he finally had a big showing. In Saturday’s first game as head coach, Taylor ran for 147 yards and a touchdown on 6.7 yards per carry.
Philadelphia is mediocre against the run defensively. They’ve given up an average of 124.8 yards per game for 20th in the NFL. Look for the Colts to attempt to control the clock and keep Hurts off the field as much as possible.
COLTS’ DEFENSE DOING ITS JOB
Indianapolis isn’t 4-5-1 this season because of a bad defense. They’ve been highly underrated. The Colts are fourth in the league, with 307 yards allowed per game.
Indianapolis is in the top-10 against the run and pass. It is imperative to have a well-rounded defense against the Eagles. Hurts is capable of doing everything, so playing well in the box and secondary.
Expect the Colts to come close in this one. They looked rejuvenated with a new head coach on the sideline. There has to be some motivation to play well for Saturday after he was slighted in the media, too.
Consider betting on the Colts getting a touchdown at home. They look like a solid NFL Week 11 underdog bet.
Eagles vs. Colts Underdog Bet
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7
Place Bet Now!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions:
Bengals vs Steelers Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Over 41 (-110)
Under 41 (-110)
We are in Pittsburgh to close out our best NFL Week 11 underdogs this week. The Cincinnati Bengals are also in Pittsburgh looking for a win. The defending AFC champs have not found things as simple this season.
Cincinnati is still a dangerous threat and in the playoff mix, though. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 5-4 and second in the AFC North. The Ravens are currently in the lead at 6-3.
The division is still wide open for the Bengals to take going into the final stretch of the regular season. They have won three of their previous four attempts. In their latest outing, the Bengals throttled the Panthers in a 42-21 win.
STEELERS NEED A WIN AT HOME
Just like the Browns, the Steelers can’t afford to drop to 3-7 on the season. They are tied going into Week 11. Pittsburgh won just their third game last week.
The Steelers received a strong effort from the defense against the New Orleans Saints. They held the Saints to 10 points in a 20-10 victory at home.
Despite not winning many games, the Steelers have covered three of their last four outings. Pittsburgh played the Dolphins tough in Miami three games back, but came up short in a 16-10 final.
Kenny Pickett had a fine showing in the win over the Saints. He did not make any mistakes, which was the most important thing. Pickett passed for 199 yards, with 51 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Kenny wheels 💨@kennypickett10 wanted in on the fun on this long @ohthatsNajee22 run 😤 (h/t @FarabaughFB) pic.twitter.com/61yNZd01ch
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2022
The Steelers have to allow the rookie to take his lumps and get experience. He has passed for 2 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 66.7% completions. Fortunately, the Steelers have been decent enough defensively.
Pittsburgh has allowed 23 points per game going into Week 11. This is not spectacular, but their defense has allowed the Steelers to be competitive recently.
At home in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have been considerably better on defense. Overall, they’ve allowed 371.9 yards per game, and at home, 303.5 yards per game. The Steelers have been tough to run on, with 81.5 rushing yards allowed per game at home.
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in their previous seven outings at home. Against the NFC North, they have been competitive at 4-1 ATS in their last five attempts. Give me for the Steelers for a potential NFL Week 11 upset and best underdog bet.
Bengals vs. Steelers Underdog Bet
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +4
Place Bet Now!